一、开场白
I am very pleased to bring our distinguished guests, Mr Ray Dalio.
我们非常荣幸邀请到尊贵的嘉宾达利欧先生
Founder and Co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world.
全球最大对冲基金桥水的创始人和联席首席投资官
Ray, thank you so much for being here today. We really appreciate it.
感谢您今天到场
It's my great pleasure.
我也很荣幸。
We will have two sessions tonight
我们今晚直播将有两个部分组成
in the first 15 minutes, Mr Ray Dalio will give a presentation about the world economy outlook.
第一个15分钟，达利欧会首先讲述世界经济展望
The second 15 minutes will be the Q&A session.
第二个15分钟是问答环节
Now let's welcome Ray Dalio.
现在有请达利欧进行开场演讲
二、演讲环节
Thank you for inviting me to share my thoughts and answer your questions.
谢谢邀请我来分享看法和回答你们的问题
My perspective is one of a global macro investor which I've been for about 55 years.
我的立足点是全球宏观投资者，过去55年都是如此
While I invest in all the liquid markets in the world,
我投资于全球所有的高流通性市场
I don't invest in illiquid investments like private equity and real estate
我不投资于非流动性的资产，例如私募股权和房地产
because I like to be able to move my positions as things change.
因为我喜欢根据情况变化而调整仓位
For that reasons, I have thoughts about all the liquid markets in most countries, but I'm not qualified to discuss illiquid markets.
因此，我对大多数国家的流动性资产有所了解，但不了解非流动性资产
As for my global economic and market outlook,
鉴于我的全球经济和市场展望
while I will touch on the next year,
尽管我今晚会讲解未来一年的趋势
I want to mostly focus on the changes we are likely to see over the next 5 to 10 years
我更重点关注的是未来5到10年的趋势
because they are most important.
因为那才是最重要的
So I will just quickly look at the next year and move beyond.
所以我会快速概览未来一年的趋势，然后再谈谈长远的走向
I think we all know that the next year will mostly be reactions to the last year,
我想我们都知道，明年将主要是对去年的一种反应
so that most likely scenario there will be a strong rebounding growth and a significant rebound in inflation.
因此最有可能出现强劲的增长反弹和通货膨胀率大幅反弹的情况。
I think that's recognized in the markets and it is reflected in prices.
上述情况已经被市场计价完毕
That will happen globally.
而且会在全球范围内发生
In different degrees in different countries, so that will affect their markets difference differently
在不同国家的发生程度不一样，也会不同程度地影响当地市场
and I won't be able tonight to delve into how that will be different in different places,
我今天不会详细论述对不同国家/地区的具体影响有何不同
because doing that would be at the expense of conveying what I believe are the most important things to convey.
因为这样做会妨碍传达我认为最重要的东西
What I believe is most important to understand is the paradigm we are now in.
我认为最重要的是要了解我们现在所处的范式
By paradigm I mean the type of environment.
范式是指环境的类型
Paradigms typically last about 10 years, with about two big cycles in them.
范例通常持续大约10年，其中大约包含有两个大周期
They determine the broad directions of the markets.
它们确定了市场的大体走势和方向
For example, in the 1970s, that was an inflationary decade and that made bear markets for bonds, while in the 1980s it was exactly the opposite.
例如1970年代是通货膨胀的十年，令债券转为熊市，1980年代则恰恰相反。
If you know what type of paradigm you're in, you know what to invest in and what to avoid.
如果你知道现在所处的范式类型，那么就会知道该投资和避免什么。
Over the last five to 10 years, I notice that there was an emergence of three major forces that we have not seen since the 1930 to 45 period.
在过去5到10年中，我发现自1930至1945年以来从未有过的三支主要力量出现
That have big effects on what has happened and that I believe will shape the next 5 to 10 years.
它们已经对事情产生了重大影响，我相信也将影响未来的5至10年
These forces transpire in long cycles that are interrelated.
这些力量在相互关联的长周期内逐渐发散
They are particularly notable in the United States, which makes them very important because the US dollar is the world's leading reserve currency.
它们在美国尤为引人注目，这使它们变得非常重要，因为美元是世界领先的储备货币
And the United States is a leading world power in many ways, including in the capital markets.
在许多方面，包括在资本市场上，美国都是世界领先的大国
The first cycle is the long term debt and capital market cycle. Here's how it works.
第一个周期是长期债务和资本市场周期，它是这样运作的
Credit is a stimulant that produces debt, which is a depressant.
信贷是产生债务的一种刺激物，而债务是一种抑制物。
Whenever the pulse of the economy shows policy makers that the economy is very weak. They hit it with a dose of stimulation that picks it up.
每当经济脉动令决策者认为经济非常薄弱时，他们会介入刺激经济
Because, since central banks do this liberally overtime.
由于央行一直以来都是这样自由实践的
Dead assets and debt liabilities rise relative to economic production overtime.
长期以来，负债和无效资产相比经济生产力增加得更快
The long term debt cycle ends when there is a lot of debt.
当债务很多时，长期债务周期结束
When holders of the debt find, it's not rewarding to hold.
当债务持有人发现持有债务不再有回报时
And when the government doesn't have enough credit to borrow all the money that it needs.
以及当政府没有足够的信用来借其所需的全部资金时
These conditions through time have always led to the printing of money by central banks and their buying of debt to monetize it.
随着时间流逝，这些条件一直导致央行印钱，并购买债务以将其货币化
That dynamic started happening in 2008 when interest rates hits 0%.
这种变化始于2008年，当时利率降至0％
It has increasingly happened, especially recently.
它越来越多地发生，尤其是最近
It is likely to happen even more in the future.
将来可能还会发生更多次
The last time that happened before 2008 was in the 1930 to 45 period.
在2008年之前出现的时点是1930至1945年期间
The most important cycle to watch is this cycle for dollar debt.
最需要关注的是美元债务周期
That is because dollar debt and its cycle that began in 1945 when the New World Order was created.
1945年创设了新的世界秩序，也带来了最新的美元债务周期
And the dollar became a dominant world reserve currency and Underpins the global financial markets.
美元成为世界主要储备货币，并支撑了全球金融市场。
So that is because, the well being of the world's reserve currency and debt Markets
这令美元这种世界储备货币和债务市场的繁荣
underpins Almost everything in the global economy and the markets.
支撑着全球经济和市场中的几乎所有事物
I'm going to show you a chart that will explain, convey these changes
我将展示一个图表，说明并传达这些历史变更
This chart goes back to 1900 an on the top line you will see debt to GDP.
这张图可以追溯到1900年，最上面一行是债务占GDP的比例
In other words, how much debt there is in relationship to the size of the economy
换句话说，债务多少与经济规模的关系
and you could see that we are at record highs
而我们现在正处于创纪录的高位
and the red circled areas on Both tops showed that high debt burden
两处红色圈出的曲线顶峰都显示了高债务负担
and in the lower chart you could see in the blue line which is interest rates.
在下图中蓝线是利率
You could see that they hit zero in 1933
1933年曾触及零
and in the red line you could see the printing of money that created the reaction. That devaluation of the dollar and the reaction
红线是印钱的规模，引发美元贬值和相关反应
and you could see the dynamic of where we now, the amount of printing of money and the analogous situation.
这样可以反观我们现在所处的动态、印钞量和类似情况
I'll turn to now. The second big force.
下面讲第二个力量
The second Big Force is the internal an order and disorder cycle that is due to widening wealth gaps, values, gaps and political gaps.
这就是内部的秩序和无序循环，是由于贫富差距、价值差距和政治差距的扩大所致
Naturally great.Economic growth. Is not distributed equally, especially in a capitalist system, so these.
通常不错的经济成就分配并不均衡，特别是在资本主义体系中
Good growth periods often lead to large wealth gap as well as over indebtedness.
良好的经济增长通常会导致巨大的贫富差距以及债务过高
this has been especially true, particularly recently because of how technology is replacing people in jobs.
这一点特别是在近期技术正取代工作中的人们时体现出来
These gaps lead to great wealth conflict,
这些鸿沟导致巨大的财富冲突，
usually between those of the capitalists of the extreme right who want to hold onto their wealth
通常在想要保留财富的极右翼资本家
and those of the extreme left who are Socialists and who want to redistribute the wealth.
以及想要重新分配财富的极左派社会主义者之间体现
Who Will Win this battle will have big impacts on taxes, capital flows and big effects on the markets.
谁将赢得这场战斗，将对税收、资本流动和市场产生重大影响
This battle is going on intensely in the United States and in a number of other countries.
在美国和其他许多国家，这场斗争正在激烈进行
The last time the gaps in wealth values in politics were this large was again in the 1930 to 45 period.
上一次财富差距带来巨大政治鸿沟发生在1930年至45年期间
And it is usually followed by intensifying disorder.
而且通常伴随着强化的无序状态
This is particularly in issue in the United States now. The next charts I'm going to show you show the wealth gap.
现在，这在美国尤其成问题。接下来的图表将显示贫富差距
It shows on the left what the wealth of the top 110th of 1% is. Top 0.1%That's the green line, an what the wealth of the bottom 90% is
这张图左边显示了0.1%最高收入的人群财富，以及最底部90%人的财富情况
and you could see that the Wealth of the top 1/10th of 1% of the population is almost equal to that of the bottom 90% combined,
最顶部0.1%的人持有的财富几乎是最底部90%的人总和
which is also the highest since the 1930s,
这是1930年来以来最高的
and you could see this picture is similar with incomes on the chart on your right.
这一分化图景也与右图显示的收入情况类似
The next chart shows the political differences existing in the United States.
下图显示了美国存在的政治分歧
The red line shows Republicans and the blue line shows Democrats
红线显示共和党人，蓝线显示民主党人
and the higher the line, the more conservative economically they are
线越高，他们在经济上就越保守
and the lower the line, the more liberal they are.
线越低，他们的观念就越自由主义
This means.Left and right.So as you can see the gap.Is the greatest ever.
目前在美国左派和右派之间，这一差距也是史上最大的
You'd have to go back to around 1900 to find something about comfortable,
您必须回到1900年左右才能找到一些令人舒适的东西
so there is a very very ideological.And political gap in the United States and in a number of countries
这说明目前在美国和许多国家中存在着非常巨大的意识形态和政治鸿沟
which will play out in the form of conflicts of various types
它将以各种类型的冲突体现出来
which will explore in our question and answer what they might look like,
我们将在问答环节阐述更多
but also.Will have economic policies through those tax forms.
以及伴随而来的经济政策和税收政策等
The third force Is the external order disorder cycle,
我提到的第三种力量是外部秩序的混乱循环
which is due traditionally to the rise of a great power to challenge the existing great power, also known as the Thucydides trap.
传统上，这是由于另一大国崛起挑战现有大国，也就是修昔底德陷阱
The last time that happened was in the 1930s.
上一次发生是在1930年代
This is now happening as China is rising to become an equal or greater world power than the United States.
目前的情况则是中国在崛起，甚至可能超越美国成为世界强国
The next chart I show here is an index of eight different types of power combined into one measure of power,
下图集中展现了8个大国力量的对比
and you could see in the blue line the US power. This goes back 500 years, goes back to 1500 and you could see China as the red line.
蓝线是过去500年的美国，从1500年左右开始，以及红线是中国
If you go back into the dynasty's, I studied the Chinese dynasties going back to the year 600, and China typically was number one or #2 or #3 in total world power,
从公元600年起，中国实力通常排名在世界前三
but you could see the rising of China at a very fast pace, challenging the United States, which is declining somewhat.
现阶段中国迅速崛起，正在挑战走下坡路的美国
so this produces competitions or wars as they are called, so they are a trade war, a technology war, the Capital War, the geopolitical war, and.
这就触发了竞争或者说战争，例如贸易战、科技战、资本战、地缘政治战争
Could be, hopefully not, a military war.
希望最后不要发展成一场军事热战
How these conflicts are handled will be important, and for most countries and markets,
对于大多数国家和市场来说，如何解决这些冲突将很重要
and I should say it's a mark of a great accomplishment of China to have such a rich ascendancy to be able to be in this position.
崛起速度如此迅猛，并有能力挑战世界第一大国的地位，标志着中国的伟大成就
Because this set of conditions hadn't happened in my lifetime before, but happened many times before that,
尽管我的前半生没有碰到过这种情况，但历史上发生过很多次
and because I was concerned about what that could mean for the dollar as the world's leading reserve currency,
由于我担心这对美元作为世界领先的储备货币来说意味着什么
I decided to study the rises and declines and empires and their reserve currency, over the last 50 years.
我决定研究世界强国的权利兴衰和它们的储备货币变化
I also studied the rises and declines of China's dynasties, starting with the Tang dynasty Around the year 600.
对于中国来说，我从公元600年左右的唐朝开始研究
The patterns were clear.
变化趋势是明显的
In my examination of last 100 years, I saw the rise of the Dutch Empire and the Dutch guilder,
在过去100年，可以看到荷兰帝国和荷兰盾的崛起，
which was followed by the rise and decline of the British Empire and the British pound,
随后是大英帝国和英镑的兴衰
which was followed by the rise and decline of the United States Empire and perhaps the beginning of the decline of the US dollar.
随后是美国的兴衰，也可能是美元贬值的开始
And we're now seeing the emergence of China's renminbi to become a more internationalized currency.
现在，我们看到了人民币的崛起，成为一种更加国际化的货币
I saw that the cycles of the rises and declines of these empires and these reserve currencies tracked the previously described cycles.
这些帝国的兴衰周期和储备货币的变化正好吻合先前描述的周期
I also saw that in all three prior cases, the Dutch, the British, and the American. These countries, when they were in their primes,
历史上，当荷兰、英国、美国分别占据世界主权地位时
had the largest shares of World Trade and had the world's leading financial centers.
它们也各自拥有世界贸易的最大份额，并成为世界领先的金融中心。
When the Dutch were most powerful, Amsterdam was the world's financial center.
当荷兰人最强大时，阿姆斯特丹是世界金融中心
When the British were most powerful, London was the world's financial center.
当英国人最有权势时，伦敦是世界金融中心
And when the Americans were on top, it was New York.
当美国人居于首位时，纽约是世界金融中心
Now China is the largest trading country in the world, and in addition to increasingly internationalizing the renminbi,
现在，中国是全球最大贸易国，此外，人民币日益国际化。
it's opening to capital markets. It's opening its capital markets to the rest of the world, offering many More attractive investments to global investors.
中国正向世界其他地区开放其资本市场，为全球投资者提供许多更具吸引力的投资
To me, 2020 was a defining year in influencing all of these conditions and in pointing to what the next 10 years will be like,
对我而言，2020年是影响所有这些条件、并指出未来十年会是什么样的决定性一年
which will favor Chinese currency, equity, credit markets relative to those of the West.
未来10年，相对于西方国家，中国的货币、股票和信贷市场将处于相对优势地位
Looking ahead.
展望未来
The United States is going to produce a lot of debt which we will have to sell as debt assets
美国将产生大量债务，我们将不得不将其出售为债务资产
At a time when the world is overweighted in US assets, especially US bonds,
与此同时，全球对美国资产、尤其是美国债券的投资过重
and when China will produce much less debt and money On an incremental basis.
而在增量的基础上，中国将产生少得多的债务和货币
At the same time, the world is underweight in Chinese assets.
同时，世界对中国资产尚处于低配程度
China is opening up to foreign investment and Chinese interest rates, currency rates and other assets are relatively attractively priced.
中国正在向外国投资开放，而中国的利率、货币汇率和其他资产的定价相对具有吸引力
All of these forces are favorable for China's balance of payments, currency and capital markets in general.
所有这些力量都有利于中国的国际收支、货币和资本市场
Also, there is China's handling of the pandemic relative to the United States handling of it,
同时不要忘记中国和美国处理新冠疫情的手法不同
and China's much greater civil order relative to high rates of disorder in the United States.
相对于美国的高混乱率，中国民间秩序显著平稳得多
That is also benefiting capital flows into China relative to those in the United States.
这有利于资本流入中国，而不是流入美国
For these reasons, as I look at the supply and demand picture of U.S. debt, it appears to me that there is not enough demand to buy the US debt.
由于这些原因，当我查看美国债务的供求情况时，似乎没有足够的购买需求
That will lead to the Fed to be faced with the choice of having interest rates rise
这可能会迫使美联储被迫加息
or printing a lot more and buying the debt which will lead to the dollar declining.
或者印更多钱和购买债务，最终将导致美元贬值
In either case, it's bearish for dollar bonds and beneficial for Chinese capital markets on a relative basis.
不论哪种情况都利空于美元债券，并相对利好于中国资本市场
because of the large wealth values and political gaps in the United States. I believe that it is likely that there will be a more internal conflict,
鉴于美国巨大的财富、价值观和政治鸿沟，我认为内部冲突可能会更剧烈。
especially between the capitalists of the right and a socialist of left,
特别是在政治图谱中右派的资本家和左派的社会主义者之间
I think President Biden is caught.
我认为拜登总统将陷入两难境地
Between a Republicans on the right who are against him because of his policies are too socialist for them
右派共和党人不喜欢他，认为他的政策过于社会主义化
and those on the left who view his policy says not enough socialist for them.
而政治左派们也不喜欢他，认为他的政策还不够贴合左派诉求
I expect Biden will go with members of his own party and will be pulled to the left.
我预计拜登会跟随民主党的政策主张并被拉向政治左派
President Biden will be a transition president who probably will be replaced by a much more socialist leader in the Democratic Party,
拜登将担任过渡总统，可能会被民主党中更具社会主义色彩的人取代
who will have much greater conflict with Republicans over in the, which will show up in the mid term elections in two years and the next presidential election in 4 years.
这将恶化与共和党人的分歧，在两年后的国会中期选举和四年后的总统大选显现
I believe that will have big implications for fiscal and monetary policies, which will have big impacts on wall markets.
我相信这将对财政和货币政策产生重大影响，从而对资本市场产生重大影响
In ways that will make non dollar assets relatively more attractive than dollar assets,
最终使非美元资产比美元资产更具吸引力
I believe that we have seen the end of the 40 year bull market in bonds, especially dollar bonds,
我相信我们已经看到40年债券牛市、特别是美元债券的牛市结束
and I believe that cash, in other words, short term debt will be an even worse investment,
我还认为，现金，或者说短期债务将是更糟糕的投资
so it shouldn't, It should be borrowed rather than held as an asset.
所以短期债务应该被借来而不是作为资产持有
There are two other factors that have played a role in the rises and declines of empires and their reserve currencies that will have very big effect on the markets.
还有两个因素在帝国及其储备货币的兴衰中起着重要作用，这将对市场产生巨大影响
They are acts of nature and technology.
那就是自然和科技演变
As far as acts of nature concerned. Throughout history, droughts, floods and pandemics. Episodically had huge impacts，
就大自然而言，纵观历史，旱灾、洪涝和疫情都产生了巨大的影响
for scientific reasons. I don't have the time to delve into why. These are likely to be more important in the future, but they are likely to be more important in the future.
这些将来可能会变得更加重要
As far as technologies are concerned. They and the innovations behind them.Have always been and remain the greatest force,
就科技而言，它们及其背后的创新，过去一直是、现在仍然是最大的影响力量
more important than all the others I just mentioned.
比我刚才提到的所有其他问题都重要
Throughout history, the winners of technology competitions were the winners of both the economic and geopolitical wars.
纵观历史，科技竞赛的赢家也是经济和地缘政治战争的赢家
I believe that this reality will lead to huge increases in resources
我相信，这种现实将导致资源的大量增加
that will be put into next generation artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, neuroscience,
将被用于下一代人工智能、量子计算、半导体、神经科学、
biotechnology, Environmental Protection and clean Energy, including battery power.
生物技术、环境保护和清洁能源，包括电池电源中
So I believe that these are great areas of investment opportunity.
因此，我相信这些都是巨大的投资机会
I believe both China and the United States will be the best positioned to pursue these given the scale.
我相信，鉴于规模效应，中美两国都将是追求这些目标的最佳选择
So I believe that pursuing investments in these areas is a smart thing to do.
因此，我认为在这些领域进行投资是明智之举
I also think that there that we will see much greater cyberattacks and risks over the next five years,
我还认为，在未来五年内，我们将看到更多的网络攻击和风险，
which could significantly affect markets and other things so cyber security will be a hot area.
这可能会严重影响市场和其他因素，因此网络安全将成为热门领域
That leads me to want to have a well diversified mix of assets funded by a short cash position.
基于这些想法，让我想要拥有一系列多元化资产，而资金来源是现金融资。
Those are my thoughts. In brief, I would now be happy to answer your questions.
这些是我的想法，我现在很乐意回答您的问题
三、问答环节
华尔街见闻提问1：
thank you for the great speech and slides. Let me begin my first question with this. You say that the 40 year bull market in bonds has ended. So where are we heading to?
感谢您精彩的演讲和图表，您说债券的40年牛市已经结束，那接下来我们会走向何处？
达利欧回答1：
Well, I'll tell you more about that. I mean, think about a bond now. Bonds in the West.
现在想想西方国家的债券是什么
US reserve currencies US, Europe and Japan all have negative real interest rates significantly, and they also have negative nominal rates, and it's really silly when you think that you're going to take money
美国、欧洲和日本的实际利率都显著低于0，名义利率也低于0
or what is an investment. It is to take. A lump sum of money and get money back.
那什么叫投资呢？就是投入一大笔钱再把它拿回来
And you think how many years am I going to have to wait to get back what I gave?
投资时你需要想的是需要等待多少年才能拿回当时投入的钱
And in many of those cases, in nominal terms in the United States, it's like 50 years. In many other cases it's never.
例如按照美国名义利率计算，大概需要50年，在很多其他西方国家大概是永远拿不回来
and there's all that wealth tied up in those bonds, and the supply demand balance is an issue.
由于大量财富都捆绑在债券中，供需平衡就是个问题
that was bonds will not serve adequate funding for needs such as pensions and endowments.
那就是债券将无法为养老金和捐赠基金等需求提供足够的资金
So they are at risk they haven't yet gone down much. In other words, rates haven't gone down much, and so we haven't yet gotten into the phase of the cycle. That holders of those will have capital losses.
目前债市处在危险的早期，周期的最坏结果是债券持有者将承受资本损失
At the same time, there has to be a lot of selling of bonds and when I calculate the sellers of the bonds relative to the buyers, there's a shortage
目前债市承受很大卖压，但买家却相对不够
if The existing owners of those bonds sell those bonds. It would be extreme,
如果目前的债券持有者都出售债券，将出现极端化的场景
so we have to see, we have to see how fast that happens.
我们必须观望这种抛售发生的速度
I think that when I do the calculations, the next two quarters numbers are not severe,
未来两个季度美国债券的供求失衡还不算很严重
but as we get late in the year, the supply demand imbalance will be large.
但今年晚些时候，供求失衡将很大
At the same time as the economy will be Accelerating probably and inflation pressures will be rising,
与此同时经济可能会加速增长，通胀压力一道提升
and that will be the time where we will possibly have to see the Federal Reserve come in and print more money into that type of acceleration.
可能这时候美联储需要介入并印更多钱才能维持
Then we deal with the dilemma.
接着便会迎来两难局面
It wouldn't take much of a rise in interest rates to hurt financial markets.
利率不需要升得很高就会重创金融市场
That would be very quick, and then that would pass through to the economy.
这种伤害将发生得非常快，然后将其传递到实体经济中
So the central bank will have to be in the position of deciding how much money it prints and how much we see in the form of the dollar devaluation.
因此，央行将必须决定印多少钱以及令美元贬值多少
I can't tell you how much it would be the rise in interest rate or how much it could be the dollar devaluation.
当然我不能对利率升多少或美元贬值幅度作出预测
But there are historical periods that can serve as a guide. The 1930s was a good example, and so was the 1970s, so I guess that's the best I can offer.
但1930年代和1970年代就是历史上最好的例证作为指导
华尔街见闻提问2：
Thank you, central banks have been printing money. They are now doing monetary policy three.
现在全球主要央行都在进行货币政策的第三阶段
As you predicted, years ago。in your words, monetary policy one is interest rate cut, Monetary policy two is quantitative easing,
你曾提到，货币政策第一阶段是降息，第二阶段是量化宽松
monetary policy Three is fiscal and monetary coordination.
第三阶段就是财政与货币政策互相协调
My question is, will the Federal Reserve do more to control the rising yields?And are they able to do that? Is there a limit That they can do?
美联储是否会采取进一步措施控制不断上涨的收益率？能否这样做，美联储的能力有上限吗？
达利欧回答2：
In my opinion, They must and history is very clear. Throughout all cycles throughout all history.
参考所有的历史参考所有的周期，美联储一定会行动，也必须行动。
When the government doesn't have enough money and the costs of rising interest rates on the economy are bad, which would be the case
当一个国家没有钱、同时面临利率上升损害经济时
The central bank always prints a lot of money and devalues the currency. So I believe that you're going to see that kind of behavior.
历来都是通过央行印钞、贬值货币来应对。我相信这种行为也会重演
In the United States you see United States had the privilege of having the world's reserve currency since 1945, and when you have the world's money.
美国享受了1945年以来拥有世界储备货币的特权
And countries evolve and they want to save.They save in that world's money. It used to be gold.
当其他国家想要储蓄时，通常会选择世界储备货币的形式，以前曾经是黄金
But then they save in that world's money from 1945 to 1971. That money was gold.
1945到1971年的世界财富储备形式是黄金，世界通用货币是黄金
The paper money was turned in for gold and the United States defaulted in 1971 and said you couldn't get the gold.
随后纸币被转化为黄金的地位，美国1971年单方面废除了布雷顿森林体系的金本位制
So we have a cycle here where because of the privileged position and the desire to own it.
美国因此利用优势地位进入这样一种周期：鉴于世界储备货币的高需求
Dollars and dollar debt as an asset. the United States has over borrowed
美元和美元债务成为一种资产类别，美国得以过度借贷
and that's part of a cycle that we've seen over a period of time.
这是一段时间以来我们看到的周期的一部分
So that's the big cycle that we're that I'm talking about. And I don't want to make it seem so big that is viewed as an immediate question. I believe that this begins. The paradigm that we're in
这就是我所讨论的大周期。我不想让这个问题听起来很大，让人感觉是我们马上要面对的问题。但我相信它已经开始
we are now having begun the new paradigm of creating a lot of debt and a lot of money,
我们现在已经开始建立新的范式，创造大量的债务和大量的金钱
and it's because we have let the conditions for the lower parts of the population become intolerably bad.
这是因为我们让底层人口的状况变得无法容忍
And that's causing political problems, but it really is the case in poor education, in a number of areas, so that the country needs then the people needs that, otherwise there will be a political up turn.
这会引发政治问题，还体现在教育质量差等多个领域，可能引发政治动荡
The key is to be able to turn those investments into productivity. Right now I don't see a clear path for that.
关键是能够将这些投资转化为生产力。目前，我还没有看到明确的解决之道。
华尔街见闻提问3：
you're been saying, cash is trash and you say don't own bonds.
你一直说，“现金是垃圾”，而且不建议持有债券。
But for stocks, the valuation of stocks around the world are at or near all time high.Should we be worried about that?
目前全球股市估值都接近或者处于历史最高，我们应该感到担忧吗？
达利欧回答3：
Yes, so the mechanics is good for everybody. I want to make sure I convey the mechanics.
我刚才回答了运行的机制，这是一种不变的原理
As I say in March and early April, when it was clear that the Pulse was dropping, the central banks put in, put all that money, and then that money went into the financial assets.
正如我去年3月和4月初所说，当经济脉动明显下降时，央行投入了所有资金，这些资金随即进入金融资产。
And so we saw all financial asset prices rise
因此，我们看到所有金融资产价格都在上涨
when they rose. You have to understand that their future expected returns relative to Bonds went down.
金融资产价格上涨，相对于债券的未来预期收益就下降了
We call those risk premiums, but the expected returns of equities went down.
我们称这些为风险溢价，目前股票的预期收益下降了
Right now bonds are, let's say U.S. Treasury bonds are a little bit over 1 1/2 percent
目前美国10年期国债收益率小幅高于1.50%
stocks expected returns For the S%P it is about 3%,
标普500指数的股票预期回报率是3%左右
so the premium is not great.
风险溢价并不是很大
If you have a rise in interest rates. From there it will not take long before that would affect the stock market as well,
如果利率开始上升，用不了多久就会牵连股市
but in any case, if it does, they'll come back and give it another jolt of stimulation 'cause they always do,
如果这种情况发生，央行会再回来，注入一轮新的刺激，因为他们总会这样做
so it pays to have a well diversified portfolio.
所以拥有一个良好多元化的投资组合至关重要
When I say well diversified. I mean, of course of different asset classes that balances each other,
良好多元化代表不同的资产类别相互平衡
such as stocks, bonds, gold, inflation indexed bonds, those kinds of asset classes that balance each other,
例如股票、债券、黄金、通胀指数债券等资产类别相互平衡
and ideally to have them global and ideally to have diversification of currency.
理想的情况是使它们全球化以及拥有货币资产多样化
because I think it's clear that a well diversified portfolio will have positive expected returns relative To cash, which will have a negative expected returns,
一个良好多元化的投资组合相对于现金而言，预期收益为正，而现金预期收益为负
but those returns will be fairly low. if it's not for active management.
不过，如果不是主动管理的投资组合，这种回报率会相对较低
华尔街见闻提问4：
Do you still suggest people put 5 to 10% of their money in gold?
你还建议人们把5%-10%的资金投入黄金吗？
Yes
是的，你继续提问。
And how about Bitcoin, which you describe it as a gold-like asset?
那么比特币呢？你之前称比特币是像“类黄金资产”？
达利欧回答4：
There are always.Real assets, you know,
“真实”资产总是存在的
real assets are those things you want to buy. It may be your house, it may be your video service. It maybe you know your device.
就是你想要去买的那种资产，例如房子、视频服务或者你的硬件设备
Those are real things. Then financial assets grow relative to those real assets
那些是真实的东西。金融资产是相对于这些实物资产此消彼长的概念
and those financial assets have only one purpose
to be sold so that you can buy the things you want to buy.
金融资产存在的目的只有一个：卖出并用来买你想买的东西
And when you have a large amount of those financial assets, stocks and bonds,
there is a real risk of that moving there.
如果你持有很大量的金融资产，例如股票和债券，就面临波动的真实风险
So one wants to buy assets that are like money or ARE money in traditional sense.
因此，人们想购买传统意义上像货币或者就是货币的资产
Gold is unique in that gold and silver to some extent have always been central bank reserves and always been internationally accepted
黄金和白银很独特，曾一直是央行储备并且国际通用
up until 1971, which is not that long ago,
直到1971年布雷顿森林体系结束为止，也没有过去很久
and because of its characteristics, it's portable. It's through thousands of years, has always been viewed as a means of exchange,
黄金便携，过去几千年来都被视为交换的媒介
and because it doesn't have any credit risk in wars and conflicts and so on.
而且不会在战争和冲突时代面临信用风险
that's what's been exchanged even by enemies doing business so gold is, as is clearly the leading one
就算敌人之间也喜欢用黄金做交易，显然黄金在这点上更胜一筹
at the same time, it's desirable to have a diversified portfolio of such storehold of wealth assets
与此同时，最好拥有多元化的财富储藏资产形式
and so that does include things like Bitcoin,
这就包含了比特币
Bitcoin has over the last 10 years proving itself in some ways, some important ways, meaning it hasn't been hacked. It has been broadly Accepted,
比特币在过去十年通过一些重要方式证明了自己，即未遭到黑客入侵并被广泛接受
but it has risks.
但比特币也面临风险
It has risks of being outlawed. It has risks of supply, demand and so on.
例如它有被取缔的风险，以及供应、需求等风险
So the important thing isn't either one of those assets.
所以重要的一点是不要单独押注某一种资产
The important thing is to think what types of assets do I have
而是去想想自己拥有了哪些类型的资产
that are like hard money assets to have a certain percentage of that in one's portfolio?
每个人的投资组合中都应该有一定比例类似硬通货的资产
For the bad situation，should you have a credit, money and credit problem.
以防你出现信用和金钱危机
华尔街见闻提问5：
Some wall street banks are calling and you commodities supercycle. Do you agree with that?
一些华尔街大行在预言大宗商品超级周期到来，你是否同意？
达利欧回答5：
The real question for commodities and inflation has to do with monetary inflation, not supply demand inflation. I want to distinguish the two types of inflation.
大宗商品涨价主要与货币通胀有关，而不是供给需求通胀。必须区分这两种类型的通货膨胀。
Most people think of normal inflation, which is supply demand Inflation
大多数人所说的通货膨胀是供应需求通货膨胀
comes when there's not enough of something and it's in strong demand.
供给短缺但是需求强劲的那种
So when capacity to produce, or labor is in short supply or commodities or in short supply because the demand is strong, so the economy is so strong that produces inflation.
当产能和劳动力供给短缺，或者经济利好时需求强劲，就会产生通货膨胀
I don't expect that kind of inflation.
但我不认为大宗商品领域是这种通胀
The real question is whether we have the other type of inflation.
That's called monetary inflation
真正的问题是，我们是否会有另外一种形式的通胀，即货币通胀
and monetary inflation, which can happen when there is weak economic activity.
货币通胀可能在经济活动疲弱时发生
Is the issue at hand.
And it really will depend on how far this thing can go.
这就是现在正发生的，而且取决于这种现象持续多久
So commodities are being owned more by those who want to hold assets that are somewhat secure in a monetary inflation.
所以买入并持有大宗商品的人主要是为了对抗货币通胀
You know, in Germany's Weimar Republic in early 1920s, even literally, rocks and stones were held as storehold of wealth because they were building materials.
例如1920年代德国魏玛共和国时期，甚至砖块和石头这种建筑材料也被当做财富储藏形式
And people wanted to put their items. Their wealth, in tangible items.
人们想把他们的财富放入有形物品存起来
So in a monetary inflation which could happen in an extreme situation, then you get us commodity super cycle.
所以当货币通胀步入极端形式时，大宗商品超级周期就发生了
I don't think you're going to get a commodity super cycle because the demand for commodities is going to be very strong.
我不认为大宗商品超级周期的发生是因为对大宗商品的需求过于强劲
华尔街见闻提问6：
this is your first time to have direct online conversation with the Chinese audience.
这是你第一次与中国的听众有直接在线交流
And my last question is that you have been talking about China as the Holy Grail of investing.So what's what are your favorite Chinese assets?
你一直在谈论中国是投资的圣杯，那么你最喜欢的中国资产是什么？
达利欧回答6：
Well, I think for most investors，the most important thing they can they start with is a balanced portfolio.
我认为对于大多数投资者而言，他们最重要的事情就是平衡投资组合。
Too many are concentrated in one asset or another, and too many you know they put their money in deposits. Deposits don't earn very much.
太多投资集中在某一种资产上，太多的人直接选择存钱，但存款收益并不高
They put their money in real estate and real estate is now becoming much more of a risky asset.
他们把钱投入房地产，房地产现在更像是一种风险资产
And they're developing a movement into the equity market and other types of credit markets, but they lack balance,
他们向股票市场和其他类型的信贷市场进军，但是他们缺乏平衡
so are Investments in China start with a well balanced. We call it all weather portfolio
在中国的投资也要从均衡开始，我们称其为全天候组合
because you can reduce risk without reducing returns. By knowing how to balance the portfolio.
如果你知道如何平衡投资组合，就可以在不减少回报的情况下降低风险。
So that is what I think that Chinese investors need most
所以这就是我认为中国投资者最需要的
and then we take our tactical movements. That's for us.
然后在全天候的平衡投资组合之上我们再叠加主动管理型的投资策略
We take tactical movements depending on which asset classes we think are good and then we'll go down to it, security specific
首先我们要决定哪种资产类别是好的，然后我们再继续讨论具体的证券
but For the most important thing for investors is to know how to diversify well
但是对于投资者而言，最重要的是要知道如何很好地分散投资，
to create the balance in a way that does not reduce returns, but does reduce risk,
以不降低收益、但降低风险的方式创造平衡
and that can be done by a well balanced portfolio such as our all weather portfolio,
这可以通过良好均衡的投资组合来完成，例如我们的全天候投资组合
but that that is the starting point. From there, one can make tactical moves.
但这只是第一步，在此基础上，投资经理们会进行战术行动
四、结束语
Ray, I want to thank you so much for your time today. We know that you have a new book coming out which is called the Changing world order.
We look forward to your new book and seeing you in China soon.
thank you seeing you in China soon. Thank you. Bye bye bye bye.